Democrats received unsettling news regarding a crucial Senate seat in Maryland, as a recent poll shows Republican Larry Hogan and Democrat Angela Alsobrooks in a dead heat. Despite Vice President Kamala Harris’ growing momentum and presence at the top of the ticket, the AARP poll reveals both candidates are tied at 46 percent among likely voters. This Senate race is seen as vital for Democrats to maintain control of the Senate, which could be challenging given the 2024 election map’s favorability toward Republicans.
The AARP poll, conducted between August 14-20, surveyed 1,258 likely voters and has a margin of error of 4 percent. Interestingly, the same poll indicates that Harris would decisively defeat former President Donald Trump in Maryland, leading him by 64 percent to 32 percent.
Hogan, who served as Maryland’s governor from 2015 to 2023, left office with a notable 77 percent approval rating, attributed to what many describe as “bipartisan, common sense solutions.” He is recognized for lowering taxes eight consecutive years, amassing a $5.5 billion surplus, and improving Maryland’s economic standing from 49th to 6th by reducing healthcare premiums by 30 percent and investing in education, infrastructure, and environmental initiatives.
Maryland has consistently supported Democratic presidential candidates since Bill Clinton’s 1992 victory, with President Joe Biden winning the state by a significant margin over Trump in 2020. However, the Senate race appears to be much more competitive. Hogan leads among voters aged 50-64 by 13 points, men by 10 points, and enjoys a substantial 23-point advantage among independents. He also has a 57-point lead among swing voters over 50.
Alsobrooks, on the other hand, holds a strong position among Black voters over 50, leading by 52 percent. She also has an 8-point edge among women and older voters aged 65 and over, while voters aged 35-49 favor her by 13 points.
Harris, who announced her presidential bid following President Biden’s endorsement on July 21, has seen a surge in momentum. This boost comes after Biden faced pressure to exit the race following a lackluster debate performance against Trump in late June. National polls indicate Harris now leads Trump in several key battleground states, and she received a notable uptick during the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, where she officially accepted the party’s nomination.
Although polls specific to Maryland’s Senate race have been sparse, the AARP poll stands out, especially since earlier surveys showed Alsobrooks leading Hogan by 9 to 11 points. With Democrats holding a slim majority in the Senate, this race could significantly impact the balance of power, particularly as Republicans are expected to gain at least one seat in deep-red West Virginia.