Representative Ilhan Omar, a Democrat from Minnesota, is preparing for a significant primary showdown on Tuesday against former Minneapolis city councilor Don Samuels. Polls indicate that Omar holds a substantial lead over her challenger, positioning her strongly in the race.
Omar, who was first elected in 2018, has become a prominent figure within the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. She narrowly defeated Samuels by just 2 percentage points in their 2022 primary, making this year’s contest highly anticipated. However, recent polling suggests that Omar is in a much stronger position this time around.
A survey conducted by Lake Research Partners on behalf of Omar’s campaign shows her leading Samuels by 27 points, with 60 percent of likely voters supporting her compared to 33 percent for Samuels. This poll, conducted from July 17 to 21 among 400 likely voters, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Another poll, conducted earlier by Victoria Research & Consulting on behalf of Samuels’ campaign, also found Omar ahead, with 49 percent of respondents planning to vote for her, compared to 30 percent for Samuels.
In addition to her polling advantage, Omar has also outpaced Samuels in fundraising. According to pre-primary campaign finance reports filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC), Omar has raised approximately $6.6 million throughout the election cycle, compared to Samuels’ $1.4 million. In July alone, Omar raised nearly $254,000, while Samuels raised about $138,000.
Whoever wins the primary is expected to have a significant edge in the general election, as the Minneapolis-based district is one of the most Democratic in the country. Republicans are not expected to strongly contest the seat.
While issues related to Israel have played a prominent role in previous primaries involving progressive Democrats, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and its affiliate, the United Democracy Project, have largely stayed out of Omar’s race. This contrasts with the support they provided to challengers of other “Squad” members, such as Representatives Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush.
Usamah Andrabi, the communications director for Justice Democrats, a PAC that supports members of “The Squad,” told the Star Tribune earlier in August, “I think they know that Congresswoman Omar is an extremely strong incumbent and has shored up a lot of local support and also has a pretty incredible record in the district of not only things like constituent services, but also leading on policies and initiatives that actually help everyday people in that district.”
As the primary approaches, all eyes are on whether Omar can secure another victory and continue her influence within the progressive wing of the Democratic Party.