Committee (NRSC). The internal poll, conducted by Peak Insights from July 31 to August 5, surveyed 800 likely voters and was shared exclusively with the National Journal’s Hotline. The results indicate a deadlock in the race for independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema’s seat, with both Lake and Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego tied at 46 percent, and 8 percent of voters remaining undecided. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
This poll brings positive news for Lake, the Republican candidate endorsed by former President Donald Trump. Lake has largely been trailing Gallego in public polls, with aggregators like The Hill and RealClearPolitics showing Gallego leading by 5.8 percent and 4.4 percent, respectively.
The upcoming Senate election is crucial, as the chamber is currently controlled by the Democrats, who hold 51 seats, including four independents who caucus with them, while Republicans hold 49 seats. The outcome of November’s election could shift the balance of power in the Senate.
In response to the poll, a spokesperson for Lake told Newsweek via email on Thursday: “Kari Lake is talking about the issues that matter to Arizonans: securing the border and lowering prices. Ruben Gallego supports Kamala Harris and her open border policies 100 percent of the time.” The Lake campaign also issued a public statement, saying: “Ruben Gallego is a Far Left progressive just like [Vice President] Kamala Harris. They both support open borders and all the bad Biden policies that decimated our economy and made life unaffordable for Arizonans. Donald Trump and Kari Lake will secure the border and get the economy back on track. Arizonans know this.”
Newsweek reached out to Gallego’s press team for comment on Thursday but had not received a response at the time of reporting.
Kari Lake, who ran unsuccessfully for governor of Arizona in 2022 and lost by more than 17,000 votes, has remained a vocal supporter of Trump’s false claims that the 2020 election was stolen. Her refusal to acknowledge her gubernatorial loss led to several court challenges.
Meanwhile, Gallego, a former Marine who served in Iraq, has been building support across party lines. Earlier this month, he launched “Republicans and Independents for Ruben,” a coalition of 40 Arizona Republicans and independents—including current and former elected officials, industry experts, business owners, and community leaders—who have endorsed him.
Lake secured the Republican nomination in late July, defeating Sheriff Mark Lamb with over 55 percent of the vote, while Gallego ran unopposed for the Democratic nomination. The race remains one to watch as both candidates vie for a pivotal seat in the U.S. Senate.