Presidential historian Allan Lichtman has raised cautionary flags about Vice President Kamala Harris’s prospects in the upcoming presidential election, stating that her path to the White House is not yet “a foregone conclusion.” In his latest analysis, Lichtman criticized the mainstream media’s shift in narrative, noting that they have gone from prematurely declaring Donald Trump the next president to now suggesting Harris is overwhelmingly likely to succeed President Biden.
Lichtman highlighted the dangers of what he described as “pack journalism,” which he believes oversimplifies the complexities of a presidential campaign. He advised against relying on “poll-driven, pundit-driven analysis,” likening it to “sports talk radio,” and instead urged a focus on his proven “keys to the White House” model, which has accurately predicted every presidential election since 1984 except one.
Lichtman’s model consists of 13 true/false statements, or “keys.” According to him, if six or more of these keys turn false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose the election. He acknowledged that Harris does have some advantages, similar to Joe Biden, but warned that her election is not guaranteed.
One key that Harris lost was the “incumbency” key, as she was selected to replace Biden. However, Lichtman noted that the Democrats avoided losing the “contest” key by uniting around Harris. He also pointed out that the Democrats have already lost the “party mandate” key due to their loss of the House to Republicans in the 2022 midterms.
Moreover, Lichtman stated that Harris does not secure the “charisma” key, noting that she “is not an FDR who has shown she’s capable of converting large numbers of members of the opposition.”
Lichtman identified four critical keys that will determine the election outcome: the third party key, domestic social unrest, foreign/military failure, and foreign/military success. He mentioned that independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would need stable support of around 10 percent of the electorate for the third party key to turn against Harris.
Lichtman also expressed concerns about the “short term economy” key, which he described as “shaky” due to a weak jobs report and a stock market skid in early August. However, he noted that this key had not yet turned against the Democrats.
Lichtman’s final advice was to “ignore the polls, ignore the pundits” and focus on the underlying factors that truly influence American presidential elections, as guided by his keys to the White House.