Former President Trump has taken the lead among Jewish voters in deep-blue New York, according to a Siena Research Institute poll released Tuesday. The poll shows Trump with the support of 50% of likely Jewish voters, slightly ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris, who has the backing of 49% of respondents.
This narrow lead for Trump represents a significant shift from previous polls. In June, President Biden led Trump among likely Jewish voters, 52% to 46%, via The Daily Mail. However, the political landscape changed dramatically after Biden announced his decision to drop out of the race and endorse Harris, who swiftly secured the Democratic nomination.
Harris’s rise to the top of the Democratic ticket has sparked concern among some supporters of Israel. They worry that her stance on the Jewish state has weakened, noting her calls for an “immediate cease-fire” during the Israel-Hamas conflict in the Gaza Strip. In March, Harris was the first administration official to call for a cease-fire and later warned of “consequences” for Israel if it proceeded with an invasion of the Gazan city of Rafah.
Harris has also faced scrutiny over her relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. When asked if Netanyahu had become an “obstacle to peace,” Harris responded, “I believe that we have got to continue to enforce what we know to be and should be the priorities in terms of what is happening in Gaza. We’ve been very clear that far too many innocent Palestinians have been killed. We have been very clear that Israel and the Israeli people and Palestinians are entitled to an equal amount of security and dignity.”
The poll results come just before Harris announced her running mate, choosing Minnesota Governor Tim Walz over Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, the only Jewish candidate in consideration. This decision led to speculation that Shapiro’s lack of popularity within the Democratic Party, which has increasingly shown sympathy towards Palestinians, influenced Harris’s choice.
Traditionally, Jewish voters have supported Democratic candidates by a significant margin. Analysis by the American Enterprise Institute indicates that, since 1968, Jewish voters have favored Democrats over Republicans by an average margin of 71% to 26%. In the 2020 election, Jewish voters supported Biden over Trump 68% to 30%, and in 2016, they preferred Hillary Clinton over Trump by 71% to 26%.
Despite the shift among Jewish voters, the poll shows Harris with an overall lead over Trump among all likely voters in New York. Harris now leads Trump 53% to 39%, a substantial improvement from the eight- to ten-point lead Biden previously held.
The Siena College Research Institute conducted the poll between July 28 and August 1, surveying 1,199 likely voters in New York, 8% of whom were Jewish. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points.